Port-au-Prince, August 18, 2026.- The draft budget 2026-2027 is in a difficult economic and institutional context. According to Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé's scoping letter, real GDP is expected to decline from a 1.5% contraction in 2025 to a 0.2% provisional growth in 2026-2027. Despite this expected slight recovery, the economy would remain well below its 2018 level. The document estimates that at the average growth rate of 2.6%, it would take about eight years to return to the production level before the major recent shocks, around 2034.
The scoping letter presents the budget as an instrument for stabilizing, gradually relaunching and strengthening public action. The Government intends to focus spending on a number of priorities, including the gradual restoration of public safety, the acceleration of the electoral process and the provision of essential services to the population.
The document also stresses the need to maintain macroeconomic balances. Public institutions are called upon to take into account the financial constraints of the State, their absorptive capacity and the maintenance of strict budgetary discipline. In particular, the budgetary framework must remain compatible with price stability, the functioning of the foreign exchange market and the objective of returning to zero monetary financing.
In terms of growth, the projections reflect an economy still in recession. Real GDP would have declined by 4.2 per cent in 2023-2024 and then by 2.7 per cent in 2024-2025. A contraction of 1.5% is expected for 2025-2026. The scenario presented then forecasts a 0.2% growth in 2026-2027, before an estimated 0.5% increase in 2027-2028 and 2028-2029.
The gap with the 2018 situation remains significant. Real GDP is estimated at about 658.3 billion gourdes in 2018, compared to 544.1 billion gourdes in 2026. This represents a decrease of approximately 17.3% from the 2018 level. The letter thus highlights the extent of the loss of productive capacity accumulated in recent years.
The recovery scenario, however, remains cautious. With an annual average growth of 2.6 per cent, the country could recover around 2034 the real GDP level recorded in 2018. This projection shows that even a sustainable recovery would not allow for the rapid recovery of lost production capacity.
The scoping letter therefore puts the next budget in the face of a double imperative: to support an economy in difficulty while avoiding a deterioration of macroeconomic balances. The low growth expected in 2026-2027 confirms that the envisaged recovery would be gradual and that Haiti's economic recovery should be time-bound.
W.A.
