Port-au-Prince, le 1er avril 2026.- L’inflation galopante qui asphyxie Haïti n’est plus un simple dérèglement monétaire, mais le symptôme d’un mal profond : l’instabilité politique chronique. Selon une étude choc de la Banque de la République d’Haïti (BRH) réalisée en mars 2026, les crises de gouvernance sont devenues le premier moteur de la hausse des prix, surpassant largement les déficits budgétaires et les tensions du marché du travail.
For 20 years, between 1998 and 2018, the price index followed a relatively gentle slope. Everything changes in July 2018. The announcement of the rise in oil prices triggers an unprecedented social challenge. Since this turning point, the rate of inflation has been multiplied by thirteen. There is no longer talk of an increase, but of an explosion: inflation nearly doubled in 2024, plunging the country into a « stagflation » A recession that has lasted for seven years, coupled with rising prices.
The dollar as a barometer of anxiety
The analysis of the experts of the Directorate of Research (DREF) is without appeal: every new peak of political instability acts as an electroshock on the exchange rate. Uncertainty causes a leak to the dollar, immediately increasing the price of imported products.
- Basic goods: Processed food products and fuel (exchangeable goods) are the first affected with a 5.6% cumulative increase following a political shock.
- Local services: Rent, health and education follow with a lag, recording an increase of 2.8%, proving that instability eventually contaminates the entire real economy.
The shadow of a wage-price spiral
For the first time, researchers used artificial intelligence to scan over 14,000 job offers (via JobPaw). The situation is worrying: despite the crisis, the « price-wage spiral » appears to be born in service sectors. To compensate for the loss of purchasing power, wage costs are increasing in the formal sector, pushing local service prices even higher.
The impotent Central Bank?
The message sent by this study is a real cornerstone in the minds of policy makers: monetary policy cannot do everything. If the source of inflation is political and security, raising interest rates will not be enough to calm the price fever. The stability of Haitians' plates will inevitably require the stability of the National Palace and the streets of Port-au-Prince.
W.A.
