@Facebook account Enomy Germain
Port-au-Prince, October 1, 2025.- Three successive fiscal decrees, an execution of investment expenditure limited to 25.4% and a contraction of GDP estimated at -3.1%: fiscal year 2024-2025 ends with a macroeconomic crisis. Between fiscal instability, galloping inflation and food insecurity, the outlook for 2025-2026 remains closely linked to the restoration of security.
Invited to Panel Magik, this Wednesday, October 1, economist Enomy Germain delivered a critical analysis of the economic situation. According to him, the past year illustrates both the lack of strategic vision and the collapse of economic fundamentals.
Misguided planning and poor execution
Fiscal year 2024-2025 was marked by the adoption of three budgetary decrees, the last one week before the end of the fiscal year. This instability reflects a lack of credibility and clear direction on the part of the government.
Equally worrisome are the implementation figures: as at 31 August 2025, only 65.8 per cent of the planned resources had been mobilized and 56.4 per cent of the actual expenditures had been met. Investment expenditure, which is supposed to support development, has achieved only a quarter of its original target.
A collapse of economic indicators
GDP growth is expected to decline by 3.1 per cent, marking a seventh consecutive year of contraction. Inflation rose to 31.1% in August 2025, reducing purchasing power. Employment, already fragile, remains in the dark: the textile sector, the only regularly monitored sector, lost nearly 200 jobs between October 2024 and May 2025. As a direct consequence, nearly 5.7 million people are now food insecure, half of the population.
External trade and a weak banking sector
The trade balance deteriorated further, with exports falling by 9.4% and imports rising by more than 10%, increasing the deficit by 14.5%. The banking sector is showing an increasing profitability (+12.3% net profit), but this performance is based on cost reduction rather than real growth dynamics, limiting its role in supporting the economy.
Security perspective
For Enomy Germain, the top priority remains the restoration of safety and the release of roads. Without this, any economic policy remains inoperative. The 2025-2026 budget will have to send the first credible signals of a possible recovery, but the action window closes quickly.
W.A.
