Port-au-Prince, March 21, 2026.- In its note of the first quarter 2025-2026 published on March 19, the Bank of the Republic of Haiti highlights a slight improvement in inflation and monetary stability, in a national economic context marked by insecurity, climate shocks and a persistent slowdown in activity.
The Haitian economy remains deeply weakened during the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-2026. According to the Bank of the Republic of Haiti, the period from October to December 2025 is a continuation of a structural crisis, with a seventh consecutive year of negative growth.
The internal environment remains dominated by insecurity, socio-political tensions and the effects of Hurricane Melissa, which hit the agricultural sector hard. The decline in the textile sector, aggravated by the expiry of the HOPE/HELP programme, has also contributed to the deterioration of the labour market and the increase in social vulnerability.
According to the International Organization for Migration, more than 1.4 million people are now internally displaced, illustrating the scale of the humanitarian crisis.
Despite these difficulties, inflation fell significantly from 31.9 per cent in September 2025 to 25 per cent in December 2025. This development is explained by the regulatory measures of the Bank of the Republic of Haiti and the decline in international prices of certain products.
Budgetary imbalances and foreign trade under stress
Public finances remain under pressure: although revenues increased (+10.9%), they did not cover the sharp increase in public expenditure (+42.41%), resulting in a deficit partially financed by the central bank.
Externally, declining exports and rising imports have increased the trade deficit to over $1.1 billion. However, diaspora transfers, on the rise, stabilized the gourd around 130.62 gourdes for a dollar.
A prudent monetary policy
Faced with these imbalances, the Bank of the Republic of Haiti has maintained a prudent monetary policy, maintaining its main instruments unchanged while actively participating in the foreign exchange market to support reserves.
The banking system remains generally resilient, although its profitability is declining in a difficult economic context.
Uncertain prospects
The outlook remains closely linked to the improvement of the security climate and the changing international environment. Geopolitical tensions could lead to higher oil prices, with repercussions on inflation.
However, maintaining GST status and extending the HOPE/HELP program could support foreign exchange flows and alleviate some economic pressures.
W.A.
